How much rest can the Philadelphia 76ers afford to give Joel Embiid?
The Sixers announced Wednesday that Embiid has been diagnosed with a "small" tear of the lateral meniscus in his right knee after he took an awkward fall during Monday's Game 4 against the Washington Wizards. Embiid won't play in Wednesday's Game 5 of the series and is listed as day-to-day going forward.
As Philadelphia attempts to treat the injury with rest and rehabilitation rather than with arthroscopic surgery that would sideline Embiid, he'll benefit from as much rest as possible. Can the remaining 76ers help him by closing out Washington and advancing deeper in the playoffs?
How the Sixers fare without Embiid
The good news is that Philadelphia has been here before. Embiid missed 21 games during the regular season, including a three-week stretch in March while he dealt with a bone bruise in his left knee. The 76ers went 10-11 (.477) in those games, as compared to 39-12 (.765) when he played.
After adjusting for opponent, Philadelphia saw major declines at both ends of the court in the 21 games Embiid missed, dropping below NBA average in offensive rating and going from elite to merely solid defensively.
The Sixers tended to miss Embiid slightly more at the offensive end, where their adjusted rating dropped by 5.4 points per 100 possessions in the games he missed. That's actually less dramatic than we saw in terms of all lineups with and without Embiid. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Philadelphia's offensive rating was 11.2 points per 100 possessions worse with Embiid on the bench this season.
In part, that's probably because Embiid's time on the bench when he plays often overlaps with other starters resting, leaving the 76ers short on overall offensive firepower. With Embiid out entirely, Philadelphia head coach Doc Rivers can rely more heavily on his other shot creators, most notably Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons.
Harris averaged 21.6 PPG in the 20 games he played that Embiid missed, as compared to 18.5 PPG with Embiid active, and rounded up to 50-40-90 shooting in that span thanks to 39.7% accuracy beyond the arc. Simmons also boosted his scoring from 13.8 PPG to 15.5 PPG in games without Embiid, albeit at a greater cost to his own efficiency. Simmons shot an even 50% in games Embiid missed but 59% when the two All-Stars played together.
Neither Harris nor Simmons stepped up Monday when Embiid left the game late in the first quarter. Although Harris scored 21 points, that came on atypically poor 8-of-24 shooting. Despite grabbing 12 boards, Simmons was relatively uninvolved offensively and attempted just five shots in addition to handing out three assists.
Instead, it was reserve guards George Hill, Furkan Korkmaz and Tyrese Maxey who led a fourth-quarter comeback that fell short, combining for 37 points off the bench.
Philly has enough to close out Washington, but then...
Whether Embiid returns in this series or not, the 76ers should be able to finish off the Wizards. No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 series deficit, and that's unlikely to change here.
While it may not make as big an impact as Embiid's absence, the Wizards are dealing with a key injury of their own after forward Davis Bertans suffered a calf strain in Game 4, not long after head coach Scott Brooks moved him into the starting lineup. Already, Brooks had cut his rotation to eight players for the must-win Game 4, largely benching former starting center Alex Len. Brooks will now have to find another player he trusts on the wing.
As the series moves back to Philadelphia, the Sixers are 6.5-point favorites in Game 5 according to Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill. And Philadelphia would have the luxury of a deciding Game 7 at home if Washington can extend the series that far.
The more important thing for the 76ers is taking care of business against the Wizards to prepare for a second-round matchup against the winner of the Atlanta Hawks-New York Knicks series, which the Hawks currently lead 3-1. Either team would represent a step up in competition from Washington, which won the eighth seed in the play-in tournament after finishing four games below .500 during the regular season.
In particular, Atlanta's potent offense would figure to test Philadelphia if the Hawks can hang on to beat the Knicks. Atlanta had a better offensive rating than the Sixers over the course of the regular season, an advantage that would be exacerbated if Embiid misses time in the second round. Smaller Philadelphia lineups with Mike Scott at center might also struggle to keep Clint Capela, the NBA's leading offensive rebounder on a per-game basis, from wreaking havoc on the glass. That would put pressure on Dwight Howard to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court.
How quickly Embiid can return will depend on the location of his meniscus tear, as injury analyst Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes broke down in 2014 when Patrick Beverley returned a little more than two weeks from suffering one ahead of the playoffs. Stotts also cited Andrew Bynum for the Los Angeles Lakers during their 2010 championship run as another example of playing through a meniscus tear. Bynum did not miss any time with the injury, though the 76ers will want to be careful to avoid the long-term knee issues that affected Bynum later in his career.
Certainly, Philadelphia will need Embiid back for a possible Eastern Conference finals matchup against the winner of the other semifinal series in the East between the Brooklyn Nets and Milwaukee Bucks. Between now and then, the more wins the Sixers can get without Embiid, the better his chances of getting the rest needed to return at something close to full strength.
How far can the 76ers go without Joel Embiid? - ESPN Philippines
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