What makes Tyronn Lue's teams so effective at coming back in a series?
Already, Lue's LA Clippers have become the first team in NBA history to come back from a 2-0 series deficit twice in the same postseason. After an impressive Game 3 win Thursday in Los Angeles, they're going to try to make that three against the Phoenix Suns in the Western Conference finals.
This is nothing new for Lue, whose Cleveland Cavaliers overcame a 3-1 deficit to beat the 73-9 Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals. Overall, Lue's teams are 15-15 in Games 1 and 2 of their series and a lights-out 35-12 in all other games, including 4-0 in deciding Game 7s.
What accounts for the discrepancy between those first two games and the rest of the series? How realistic is a repeat in this series? Let's take a deeper look to find out.
Lue tightens his rotations
When the Clippers were down 2-0 to the Utah Jazz in the conference semifinals, I pointed out how disjointed their rotations had been over the course of the playoffs. That changed starting in Game 3, as Lue settled on small starting lineups and tightened his rotation to nine players at most.
We've seen something similar in the conference finals. Starting the series on short rest less than 48 hours after closing out the Jazz, Lue opted to use 10 players in Game 1 in Phoenix, including a return to the rotation for DeMarcus Cousins after he did not see action after Game 3 of the previous series. By Thursday's Game 3, Cousins was back out of the rotation while Rajon Rondo's minutes were scaled back, leaving the Clippers primarily relying on eight players.
It turns out this is a consistent theme going back to Lue's time in Cleveland. All coaches shrink their rotations over the course of series, but Lue does so a bit more than most.
On average, Lue's rotations -- defined by players seeing more than 12 minutes of action in a given game -- have been slightly larger than is typical during the first two games of the series and have been smaller than other coaches' rotations thereafter.
Clippers improve at both ends, but particularly on defense
Above and beyond the record, Lue's teams tend to play totally different at both ends of the court after the first two games of a series. Their offensive rating increases by 3.6 points per 100 possessions while their defensive rating decreases by a remarkable 4.2 points per 100 possessions, turning their net rating from a small positive in Games 1 and 2 (plus-1.1 points per 100 possessions) to a dominant plus-9 the rest of the series.
Given that transformation, it's no wonder Clippers star Paul George compared Lue to legendary New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick in terms of his adjustments earlier this week.
I'd say those adjustments shine through more at the defensive end of the court, where Lue's teams have forced more difficult shot attempts starting in Game 3 than during the first two games of a series, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Switching has been another effective counter for Lue over the course of the series. Per Second Spectrum data, his teams have switched far more commonly. Looking strictly at series of at least six games, Lue's teams go from switching a quarter of the time in Game 1 to nearly 40% by Game 7.
With the Clippers going small, switching was a big part of their defensive game plan against both the Jazz and Dallas Mavericks. Because of Deandre Ayton's presence, they've gone the opposite direction so far in this series, switching most frequently in Game 1 (25% of Phoenix's picks, according to Second Spectrum) and doing so just 14% of the time in their Game 3 win.
Will the Clippers do it again?
I said this last time, but this series does look like a far more difficult challenge for the Clippers because they may not have Kawhi Leonard, who's already been ruled out for Saturday's Game 4. As much credit as Lue deserves for making adjustments over the course of series, his teams' comebacks have also relied on having superstars LeBron James in Cleveland and Leonard with the Clippers.
Without Leonard's 45-point effort on the road in Game 6 against the Mavericks -- not to mention tight defense against Luka Doncic -- the Clippers probably never come back from the first 2-0 deficit they faced this postseason.
Still, the Clippers have shown us enough without Kawhi to not write them off in this series. They beat Utah twice without their star to close out that series and got an impressive win over the Suns in Game 3, clamping down defensively against Phoenix guards Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Game 3 was the first time the Clippers have gotten better quality shots than the Suns, according to Second Spectrum's quantified shot probability measure, which factors the ability of the shooter in addition to the location and type of shot and distance to nearby defenders.
Paul's return wasn't the edge Phoenix figured it to be for a couple of reasons. Predictably, Paul was rusty after an extended stint in the NBA's health and safety protocols, missing many of the same pull-up jumpers on which he feasted in the Suns' second-round win over the Denver Nuggets. (Paul shot 65% on non-paint 2-point attempts in that series, per NBA Advanced Stats, but went 3-of-8 on them Thursday. Booker shot 0-of-5 from this range.)
It didn't help that Suns head coach Monty Williams was forced to extend Paul's minutes after trusted backup Cameron Payne, who averaged 20 PPG and 9 APG replacing Paul in the first two games of the series, left for good after the first quarter with an ankle injury. Paul ended up playing nearly 39 minutes, testing his stamina.
From the Clippers' perspective, keeping Patrick Beverley out of foul trouble has been key to allowing him to hound Booker defensively. Since picking up two early fouls in Game 2, Beverley has four total over his last 47:44 of action, atypical for a player who averaged 6.2 fouls per 48 minutes during the regular season.
Without Kawhi, the Clippers have limited margin for error. Beverley foul trouble or hot shooting from the Phoenix backcourt could be enough to put them in a 3-1 deficit. Still, Game 3 suggested a path toward pulling off another comeback, in classic Ty Lue fashion.
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