How can the Brooklyn Nets beat the Milwaukee Bucks without two of their three stars?
On Monday, Nets head coach Steve Nash told reporters that Kyrie Irving is out for Game 5 of their series with the sprained ankle he suffered Sunday. Shortly thereafter, Brooklyn ruled out fellow All-Star guard James Harden due to the hamstring injury that has sidelined him since Game 1 against the Bucks.
That means the Nets will play Tuesday's pivotal Game 5 with only Kevin Durant of their three high-scoring star players. After losing both games in Milwaukee to leave the series tied at 2-2, what can Brooklyn do better to maintain home-court advantage? Let's take a look.
Brooklyn's track record with only Durant
Of Brooklyn's three stars, Durant played the fewest minutes without either of the other two during the regular season because of his injuries: just 286, as compared to 613 for Irving and 517 for Harden. During that span, the Nets were quite good, outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per 100 possessions outside garbage time, according to Cleaning the Glass lineup data -- even better than the team did with all three on the court (plus-11.1 net rating).
Aside from the small sample, another reason to be skeptical of that stat is a heavy percentage of those minutes came against non-playoff opposition. Durant's lone two games without either other star after Harden joined the lineup came in lopsided April wins over the Minnesota Timberwolves (by 30 points) and Indiana Pacers (by 17 points).
The Bucks present much stiffer opposition.
During Game 4, Brooklyn managed a dismal 77.2 offensive rating in the 26-plus minutes Durant played without Irving, per NBA Advanced Stats. Even by comparison to the Nets' struggles to score in the first five and a half quarters of the series played in Milwaukee, that stood out. Brooklyn scored 86.1 points per 100 possessions in Games 3 and 4 with both stars on the court.
The impact on Durant's offensive role was particularly notable. Without Irving on the court, Durant finished an incredible 46% of the Nets' plays with either a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover -- higher than his usage rate in any full playoff game in his career, per Basketball-Reference.com. Predictably, Durant's efficiency suffered from the huge load he carried offensively. Durant shot 6-of-19 from the field with Irving on the bench.
Finding more balance without Harden and Irving will be a key challenge for the Brooklyn coaching staff in Game 5.
The Nets need to create shots for role players
When Brooklyn's stars are healthy, the offensive formula is simple: Rely on them to create while everyone else takes advantage of the opportunities caused by defensive attention to the Big Three.
We can clearly see this while sorting Nets shot attempts by whether they came with fewer than two seconds of touch time (generally shots created by others) or with more than two seconds (self-created shots) according to NBA Advanced Stats.
Of the seven Brooklyn players with at least 100 self-created shot attempts during the regular season, only the Big Three posted a better effective field goal percentage (eFG%) on those shots than the league average of 48.5%.
By contrast, Brooklyn's top 10 players in playoff minutes were all better than the average eFG% on shots with fewer than two seconds of touch time (59%). So it's incumbent on the Nets' coaches to find a way to generate those opportunities without relying as heavily on the individual talent of their stars.
One unlikely possible candidate to help there: point guard Chris Chiozza, who's played a bit role since suffering a third metacarpal fracture in April, which helped convince Brooklyn to add point guard depth with Mike James. James moved into the rotation after Harden went down, while Chiozza has played only late in lopsided games.
Despite James' reputation as a confident scorer, he's been ineffective creating his own shot for the Nets. James posted a 39% eFG during the regular season on self-created shots and struggled badly as Irving's replacement in the starting lineup to open the second half of Game 4, finishing with five points on 2-of-6 shooting.
Although Chiozza is an inefficient individual scorer and would likely be a target defensively at 5-foot-11, Brooklyn could use his playmaking with Harden and Irving out. Chiozza averaged 10.1 assists per 36 minutes during the regular season, most of any Nets player besides Harden.
How to buy Durant some minutes
One thing we didn't see during Game 4 was Brooklyn playing competitive minutes with none of the Big Three on the court. After staggering minutes with Irving in the first half, Durant played the first 19:32 of the second half without a rest before Nash pulled his starters. Playing Durant the whole game isn't a sustainable strategy for Brooklyn, so the coaching staff needs to find a way to survive a quick rest for him.
The Nets do have another All-Star on the roster in Blake Griffin, but the data on self-created shots suggests he's no longer a good go-to option while Durant is on the bench. In fact, Griffin's turnaround in Brooklyn can be traced largely to being set up by teammates.
With the Detroit Pistons, 67% of Griffin's shots came with more than two seconds of touch time. With the Nets, that's almost completely flipped, with 63% of Griffin's attempts coming within the first two seconds. And his eFG% on those shots, typically set up by teammates, has improved from 51% with the Pistons to 66% in Brooklyn.
Despite James' inefficiency as a shot creator, I think the Nets can build their non-Durant lineups around his ability to get shots up and hope James gets hot while focusing on playing the Bucks to a draw defensively. If Brooklyn can stay even without Durant on the court, it's a huge boost to the team's chances.
As anemic as the Nets' offense looked after Irving's injury in Game 4, there's reason to believe Brooklyn can play better at home. The Nets can expect more accurate outside shooting after going just 18-of-65 on 3s (28%) in Milwaukee, a drastic decline from the 44% they made in Games 1 and 2 when they averaged 18 triples per game.
If Brooklyn can find someone besides Durant to set up the team's role players to score, there's a path for the Nets to win Game 5 without two of their three stars.
Without Kyrie Irving and James Harden, here's what the Nets face in Game 5 - ESPN Philippines
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