What lessons from this year's NBA playoffs might teams try to apply in the offseason?
For the other 29 teams, the goal is to get where the Milwaukee Bucks did earlier this week -- hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy. And while that might not be a realistic possibility next season for many teams, all of them will try to get a step closer during the upcoming NBA draft and free-agency period, accompanied by the return of trade season.
As teams plot their offseason course, the trends we saw during the playoffs can't help but play a role, even in a postseason as unusual as the 2021 version defined by injuries to key players. Let's take a closer look at some of these trends, which teams might apply them this summer and whether that might be a mistake.
Accelerating the timetable
The most notable outcome from this year's playoffs was the success enjoyed by newcomers. The Phoenix Suns reached the NBA Finals and came within two wins of their first title in franchise history after a full decade in the lottery, while the Atlanta Hawks jumped from a 20-47 record in 2019-20 that left them far short of joining the bubble all the way to the Eastern Conference finals.
In both cases, that came after their respective front offices sped up the timetable on rebuilding processes by adding veterans to the young core. Atlanta dealt for center Clint Capela at the 2020 trade deadline and stocked up in free agency last offseason, signing Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari. Of the Hawks' top eight players in playoff minutes, just three (John Collins, Kevin Huerter and Trae Young) had played for them in 2019-20.
Phoenix made fewer additions to a young core that had gone 8-0 in seeding games during the NBA's bubble restart of the 2019-20 season, but two important ones in All-Star Chris Paul and starting forward Jae Crowder. Their performance and veteran leadership were both key as the Suns surprised everyone by finishing with the league's second-best record and reaching the Finals.
The concern is Atlanta and Phoenix were outliers for a reason.
Teams that try to shortcut their way from the lottery to playoff glory often end up hurting their long-term prospects without the same kind of short-term success. The teams casting themselves as the next Hawks or next Suns might not benefit from the same kind of injuries to opposing stars or simply be as good in the first place as Atlanta and Phoenix, who were both in the league's top three in winning percentage after the All-Star break.
Still, that won't stop teams from trying, particularly with the lure of potentially playing to capacity crowds like we saw in Atlanta and Phoenix during the playoffs. I'd say the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings, two long-suffering teams like the Suns, are most at risk of deluding themselves into thinking they can repeat the success the Hawks and Suns enjoyed in the playoffs.
The Charlotte Hornets and New Orleans Pelicans would have a better chance at being right, given their stronger performance this season, but win-now moves would also be risky for those teams with young stars.
If there's one team that could truly replicate what Atlanta and Phoenix did, it might be the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies got a taste of the postseason this year, winning their way out of the play-in tournament before playing a competitive five-game series with the Utah Jazz. Given their depth of young talent -- too many quality players to retain long term -- Memphis' patient rebuild might benefit from the kind of depth-for-star trade the Suns made for Paul.
You can win with a center -- but not just any center
The 2021 playoffs were an interesting time for the center position. The LA Clippers reached the Western Conference finals in large part because of coach Ty Lue's decision to bench traditional center Ivica Zubac in favor of five-out lineups with no player taller than 6-foot-8 on the court. Those shooting-heavy units rendered Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert largely a bystander as the Clippers beat the Jazz twice without star Kawhi Leonard to complete their series win.
At the same time, after 7-footers combined to play just 22 total minutes in the 2020 Finals with both the Heat (Bam Adebayo) and Lakers (Anthony Davis) sliding their power forwards to center, this year's last two teams standing played more conventionally. Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer resisted calls to bench center Brook Lopez after he struggled defending pick-and-rolls in Game 1 of the conference finals and the NBA Finals and was rewarded with improved defense the rest of those series.
Meanwhile, Phoenix center Deandre Ayton emerged as the ideal antidote for small ball: quick enough to keep up defending on the perimeter but powerful enough to dominate smaller opponents in the paint. The threat of Ayton kept Lue from going small much of the conference finals, and after a successful shift toward it with Zubac sidelined midway through the series, Ayton posted 16 points and 17 boards in Game 6 as the Suns closed out the Clippers.
Whichever team drafts USC center Evan Mobley in the top handful of picks next week will hope for a similar outcome. Mobley isn't quite as interior-oriented as Ayton but should have enough skill to make plays in the paint against mismatches and has similar defensive versatility.
The fit is less clear for Turkish center Alperen Sengun, the only other center in the top 30 of ESPN's top 100 ranking of draft prospects. Sengun dominated competition in the Turkish Basketball Super League, winning MVP honors at age 18, making him the most impressive prospect in the draft from a purely statistical standpoint. NBA teams must weigh whether Sengun can stay on the court enough to provide that kind of production at the highest levels of play.
Revenge of the midrange?
At times, this year's Finals felt like a throwback. The Bucks and Suns combined to take 21% of their attempts from between the paint and the 3-point line, the highest rate in a Finals since 2014, according to analysis of data from NBA Advanced Stats.
Phoenix in particular found joy in the midrange. The Suns ranked fourth in the percentage of their shots that were 2s outside the paint during the regular season and led all teams in the playoffs. However, Khris Middleton was a successful midrange option for Milwaukee, too.
Against top-caliber defenses focused against taking away high-value attempts at the rim and beyond the 3-point line, teams need to have the ability to get off the shots these defenses are more willing to concede. Per Seth Partnow of The Athletic, this was the first postseason in the past 20 years in which non-paint 2-point attempts increased each round (and from the regular season to the opening round).
Still, I think teams trying to follow the Suns' lead might find their midrange success hard to replicate. Yes, both Western Conference finalists (Phoenix and the Clippers) were in the top five in the percentage of shots that came from between the paint and the 3-point line. But so too were the lottery-bound Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs. The fifth team, the Washington Wizards, reached the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.
In part, it's tough to find shooters as effective from midrange as Suns guards Devin Booker and Paul. Paul's 52% accuracy on non-paint 2s ranked second among players with at least 200 attempts during the regular season, per NBA Advanced Stats, while Booker was fifth among this group at 49%. Thanks to them, Phoenix as a team hit a league-high 47% of non-paint 2s. Just two other teams (the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers) made better than 45% of midrange attempts.
As a result, I think midrange shooting will remain more important to winning in the playoffs than for getting there in the first place.
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