What does Dennis Schroder's decision to sign a one-year deal with the Boston Celtics mean for him and his new team?
Having reportedly turned down an extension offer from the Los Angeles Lakers during the regular season, Schroder saw his market fail to materialize this summer. After the Lakers replaced him at point guard by trading for Russell Westbrook, Schroder was forced to settle for a one-year deal at the $5.9 taxpayer midlevel exception, sources told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
What kind of a bargain are the Celtics getting in Schroder at that price? And what are his chances of reestablishing his value in Boston in time to return to free agency in the summer of 2022? Let's break it down.
A cautionary tale
In baseball, second baseman Jody Reed infamously turned down a three-year, $7.8 million extension from the Los Angeles Dodgers after the 1993 season in order to test free agency. He ended up with a one-year contract from the Milwaukee Brewers that paid $750,000 (including incentives) and made $2.2 million total over the three-year span according to Baseball-Reference.com.
For years, any time a player made a questionable decision to turn down an extension offer, Reed's example was cited. I suspect Schroder's tale may linger in the same way.
The Lakers could have offered him a four-year extension worth $84 million guaranteed plus an additional $8 million in bonuses. Whatever the exact details of the Lakers' offer, Schroder turned it down, expecting a robust market in free agency.
That might have worked out for Schroder had he repeated his 2019-20 campaign with the Oklahoma City Thunder, when he shot a career-high 38.5% from 3-point range and finished second in voting for Sixth Man of the Year. That performance convinced the Lakers to give up a first-round pick and starter Danny Green to get Schroder from Oklahoma City.
Predictably, Schroder's hot shooting did not carry over last season, as his 3-point accuracy dipped to 33.5% -- nearly exactly his career mark (33.7%). That made Schroder a worse fit alongside Anthony Davis and LeBron James, and he struggled to prop up the offense when those players were injured midseason.
Schroder's season ended poorly when he entered the NBA's health and safety protocols in May, missing seven games before returning for the final two of the regular season. In the Lakers' first-round loss to the Phoenix Suns, Schroder started well as the Lakers took a 2-1 lead in the series before both the player and team struggled in three consecutive losses. Schroder shot a combined 9-of-36 in those games, including 4-of-21 from 3-point range, while handing out just seven assists.
When the Lakers' deal for Westbrook came together on draft night, it apparently ended Schroder's tenure in L.A., rendering his Bird rights worthless. With teams prioritizing other veteran point guards in a deep group of free agents at the position, Schroder's market to get an offer for more than the taxpayer midlevel dried up.
Although a handful of teams still could have outbid the Celtics, none had a need at point guard or interest in a veteran one. By this week, it became more a question of when Schroder might accept that Boston's offer was the best he had coming rather than whether a better offer might emerge.
Schroder's fit with the Celtics
By contrast to those teams with more spending power, Boston does have a need for a playmaker after trading Kemba Walker for Al Horford earlier this offseason. The Celtics could have gotten by with Marcus Smart as a point guard along with second-year reserve Payton Pritchard, but adding Schroder allows Smart to play his natural shooting guard position and takes the playmaking load off him and Jayson Tatum.
First-year Boston head coach Ime Udoka will now have some interesting options with his starting lineup. The Celtics could go small with Tatum and Jaylen Brown at forward and Horford at center or play a big group with Horford alongside center Robert Williams III and Brown and Tatum on the wing. It wouldn't be surprising if that choice varied from game to game depending on matchups.
Schroder's shooting will still be an important variable in Boston. Pairing him with Smart, a 33% career 3-point shooter, could cramp the Celtics' spacing a bit even if Horford gives them a stretch option at center. Udoka might be wise to stagger the minutes of Schroder and Smart as much as possible.
I'm somewhat skeptical of Schroder's ability to rebuild his value in Boston. Looking at his career as a whole, 2019-20 looks much more like the outlier to last season. Optimistically, more realistic expectations for Schroder than his final season in Oklahoma City generated could make a repeat of last season look relatively better by comparison.
From the Celtics' standpoint, there's relatively little downside to this deal. There wasn't anyone left at this point in free agency that made sense as a use of their taxpayer midlevel. I would probably have rather had the guards who already signed for the tax midlevel with the Brooklyn Nets' Patty Mills and Lakers' Kendrick Nunn, both of whom were no longer options for Boston.
Adding Schroder will push the Celtics into the tax, but by a modest enough amount that they can get out by finding a taker for Kris Dunn -- who now looks unnecessary at guard with the subsequent additions of both Schroder and Josh Richardson.
If Schroder plays well, Boston would be hard-pressed to re-sign him using non-Bird rights, which would limit the Celtics to offering him a starting salary of $7 million without using an exception. Still, that's a problem Boston would gladly take, as it would mean this short-term marriage with Schroder had worked out for both sides.
NBA free agency 2021 - How Dennis Schroder landed on the Boston Celtics, and how he fits at guard - ESPN Philippines
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