The Toronto Raptors were just becoming fun again. Gone were the days of trade rumors and disgruntled players, the fans were focused on pizza parties and win streaks for a new young core, centered around their franchise player Scottie Barnes. There was genuine excitement among fans to watch a team with 22 wins on the season play and grow together.
But on Friday night, that excitement was dealt a massive body blow.
Toward the end of the second quarter against the Golden State Warriors, Barnes sustained a left-hand injury and was ruled out for the rest of the game. The Raptors went on to lose the game, but that didn’t matter as much as the status update on their All-Star forward. Merely two hours after the game it was announced that Barnes had suffered a fracture to his third metacarpal bone in his left hand and is now out indefinitely.
Typically, that sort of injury depends on the route the Raptors decide to take, the severity of the injury, and whether Barnes’s hand requires surgery or not. Jeff Stotts noted yesterday that the typical timeline without surgery is about 31 days to return to basketball activity; with surgery, it’s an average of 41 days. For example, Orlando Magic big man Wendell Carter Jr suffered a similar injury earlier this year and missed 20 games through 47 games.
The Raptors have 22 games left through the next six weeks, which means that Barnes likely won’t return for the rest of the season. And even if he’s able to come back for the final week, it might be in the Raptors' best interest to shut him down to make sure that hand is healed.
Nonetheless, even if his year ends in disappointment, Barnes’s season will have still been an important one for the Raptors. The 3rd year forward turned himself into an All-Star (the second youngest in Raptors history) and put up career-highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point percentage and free-throw percentage. With all the changes the Raptors have gone through over the last year, they needed assurance that Barnes would turn into the star that he projected to be and this season helped provide that for the organization — and he still has a lot more room to grow.
That growth will be delayed until the off-season but... there’s still basketball to be played. And there are still other areas worth watching for the Raptors this year.
Quickley’s Playmaking
When the Raptors first acquired Immanuel Quickley, it was with the idea that he could be their point guard of the future. He was thrown to the fire in that regard, starting on day one and commanding the ship. It’s brought mixed results.
He’s developed a potent chemistry in the pick-and-roll with big-man Jakob Poeltl and Poeltl’s ability to screen and seal for Quickley has opened up his scoring game as well. Just in the 5 games post-All-Star break, IQ is putting up over 21 points while shooting better than 45% from three on nearly 10 attempts a game. He’s been lights out as a scorer and Poeltl’s been a big part of opening that up. Quickley has also helped Poeltl by finding him for dump-off passes as he rolls to the basket and it’s likely that without Barnes, the Raptors lean further into this as the foundation of their offense.
But still... lots of room to grow as a playmaker elsewhere. Quickley has struggled to keep his dribble alive when orchestrating the Raptors' offense, so he gets stuck in the paint and is forced to kick the ball out to reset.
He’s also not making any complex reads as a playmaker, so with Barnes out, there will be ample room for him to experiment on manipulating pick-and-rolls to not only find Poeltl but to find cutters backdoor or to find shooters camped out in the corner.
Think of these next six weeks as a boot camp for Quickley to grow as a playmaker and learn how to be a starting point guard in this league.
Barrett’s Scoring Versatility
RJ Barrett has been playing some of the best basketball of his career since coming to Toronto. He’s refined his game to be a bruiser inside, barrelling his way to the rim for easy points, dominating in transition, and feasting as a cutter in the Raptors offense. But with Barnes out, there are more touches and more usage to go around and Barrett and Quickley will likely be the biggest beneficiaries.
Barrett has lived at the rim since coming to Toronto, taking 15% more of his shots there compared to when he was a Knick, and shooting 71% on those shots, nearly 13% better than when he was in New York this season. But teams are starting to take notice, sending help on drives, often crowding him once he gets into the paint.
Without Barnes, Barrett has the opportunity to experiment more as an on-ball creator and develop some counters for his potent finishing game. He’s taken a total of three (yes, three) mid-range jumpers with the Raptors and 7% fewer threes since joining the team. This is a chance for him to add some versatility and develop some counters when opposing teams know he just wants to get to the rim.
Besides, that will help open up his playmaking, which has popped off the charts since arriving in his hometown. Raptors Head Coach Darko Rajakovic likened Barrett’s game to “Manu Ginobili” and now, he has the chance to go out there and try and add a thing or two from the Argentinian legend.
Who Will Start?
When Barnes checked out of the game on Friday, Rajakovic opted to start big man Kelly Olynyk in the second half alongside the rest of the usual starters. Will that be the case moving forward?
Olynyk has developed a nice chemistry with the Raptors' second unit of Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, and Bruce Brown — particularly as a high-post playmaker. Would Rajakovic want to risk taking that away?
The other option is starting Dick, who has come on strong in the last month, particularly as a shooter — but then the Raptors, who are already struggling defensively, would have to go to a lineup that would be even smaller with the rookie inserted into it.
How about a wild card like Jordan Nwora? Or maybe even starting Brown?
There are a few different ways the Raptors can approach this and it’ll be interesting to see which route they go.
Extra Opportunities For Everyone
Since January 1st, Barnes has led the team in touches and usage. The Raptors will have to look within to find someone to take on over 70 touches per game and over 25% usage. Now most of that will go to Barrett and Quickley who will for sure get more reps.
But there are a few guys who could stand to get some more touches. The rookie Dick has the primary case for an expanded role. Not only did he make 47% of his threes in February, but he’s also shown a propensity to make plays with the ball in his hands.
Even outside of Dick, the Raptors just converted G-League star Javon Freedom-Liberty to a full NBA contract. Could he get more run without Barnes? He seemingly should if he’s part of their long-term plans. The same thing applies to Agbaji whom they acquired at the trade deadline. Nwora is on an expiring contract this summer and has shown flashes of being a dynamite scorer, it’d be worth getting a better look at him in the final stretch of the season.
And with Barnes out, there’s ample opportunity in the front-court too. Jontay Porter will likely be back in the rotation and his playmaking plus floor-spacing combination is an intriguing fit for this core. Chris Boucher received some playing time last night with Barnes out and the veteran who had fallen out of the Raptors rotation could get another crack at an expanded role.
There’s going to be a lot of opportunity on this Raptors team now. It just depends on who takes it and runs with it.
Lottery Odds
The Raptors have their first-round pick out the door to the San Antonio Spurs. However, it’s top-6 protected and with the Raptors sitting at the 7th worst (or best) lottery odds, they might be incentivized to pull the plug entirely in the name of extra lottery balls.
If they were to stay at 7th, the likely scenario is that they lose their pick to the Spurs. If they somehow out-tank the Memphis Grizzlies (who have 20 wins compared to the Raptors 22 and many more injuries) then they would slide to the 6th best odds and increase their chances of retaining their pick.
Regardless, their fate will be in the hands of lottery balls... it just depends on how many.
The Ripple Effects Of The Scottie Barnes Injury On The Raptors - Forbes
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