Teregold: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 2 Odds and Predictions

Highlights

The Nuggets are favored in Game 2 despite losing the series opener.
The Timberwolves are playing exceptional offense could pose a challenge for the Nuggets.
Betting trends suggest picking the Timberwolves +5.5, under 217 points, Edwards over 28.5 points, and Jokić over 29.5 points.

The 2023-24 NBA playoff action continues this week as we move into the second round. One of the games on tap from today's slate features the Denver Nuggets hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the conference semifinals.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 2 Info
When	Mon. May 6
Where	Ball Arena
Time	10:00 PM EST
Location	Denver, CO
TV	TNT

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Denver is the favorite heading into Game 2

The Denver Nuggets stormed through the playoffs, dropping only four contests en route to winning it all last season. This included a 4-1 series win over the Timberwolves in the opening round. However, Minnesota emerged victorious in the series opener 106-99. Nikola Jokić led the way with 32 points, eight rebounds and nine assists.

Michael Porter Jr. added 20 points and six rebounds while shooting 4-for-7 from 3-point range. Jamal Murray — who is playing through a calf injury — contributed 17 points and four assists. The Timberwolves proved to be a tough out when these teams clashed in last year's playoffs.

Usually, it is the opponent that has to adjust to the defending champions. However, following a Game 1 loss, Denver is the team that needs to adjust to avoid a deficit of 0-2 heading back to the Twin Cities.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have played exceptionally well in these playoffs. After sweeping the Phoenix Suns in the opening round, Minnesota's solid play continued in the series opener against the Nuggets. Anthony Edwards paced the team's offense with 43 points (including 25 in the first half) on 17-for-29 shooting from the field. He also tallied seven rebounds and three assists.

Karl-Anthony Towns added 20 points, four rebounds, and three assists. Naz Reid scored 16 points off the bench, while Mike Conley finished with a double-double that included 14 points (on 5-for-8 shooting) and 10 assists for a Minnesota team that shot 52.4 percent from the field and 40.7 percent from beyond the arc. Denver's head coach offered this assessment of the Timberwolves' performance.

“Naz Reid got going. Karl-Anthony Towns got going. Mike Conley got going — where Anthony Edwards carried the day in that first half. But the second half I just felt not nearly enough discipline and physicality, and they were able to get whatever they wanted." -Mike Malone

The Timberwolves lead the playoff field in scoring, averaging 115.8 points per contest. Unless the Nuggets can slow down this offense, they could be facing an uphill battle the rest of the way.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 2 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves' Mike Conley Anthony Edwards

The Spread

Despite losing the series opener, the Nuggets are a 5.5-point favorite coming into this matchup (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

The Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last five contests.
Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven matchups against Denver.
In their last 10 road games, the Timberwolves are 8-2 against the spread.
The Nuggets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Denver is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 matchups against Northwest Division opponents.
In their last six Monday games, the Nuggets are 2-4 against the spread.
The Nuggets are 22-22-1 ATS when they are favorite to win by 5.5 points or more, while the Timberwolves are 3-1 against the spread when playing as an underdog of at least 5.5 points.
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 216 points, but the line has recently moved to 217 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with “UNDER” is the smart choice.

The total has gone UNDER four times in the Timberwolves’ last five May contests.
The UNDER total has prevailed five times in the Nuggets' last six outings.
The UNDER total is 4-1 in Denver's last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.
In the Nuggets' last seven Monday games, the UNDER total prevailed five times.
Prediction: UNDER 217 points

Player Prop Bets

After scoring 43 points in Game 1, Anthony Edwards is the key player to watch for the road team. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 28.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 28.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

Edwards is averaging 26.4 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
In five games against the Nuggets this season, Edwards has averaged 29.4 points per contest.
During the postseason, he is averaging 33.4 points per outing.
Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 55 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.1 points per outing.
In 16 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Minnesota’s shooting guard averages 26.9 points per game.
Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 29.6 points and 5.8 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.
Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 28.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, the key player to watch for the Nuggets is Nikola Jokić. He currently has -102 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -118 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Do Jokic’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

During the regular season and playoffs, he is averaging 26.6 points per game in 85 appearances.
In five games against the Timberwolves this season (including the playoffs), Jokic has averaged 33.0 points per contest.
During the postseason, he is averaging 28.8 points per outing.
Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 55 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.8 points per outing.
In 15 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Denver's big man averages 28.6 points per game.
Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 27.9 points and 13.5 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.
Prediction: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points