Teregold: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 5 Odds and Predictions

Highlights

The Nuggets made a strong comeback in the series with back-to-back wins against the Timberwolves.
Denver's Nikola Jokić and Michael Porter Jr. are key players with impressive performances.
Minnesota needs to improve defensively and rely on Anthony Edwards to counter Denver's momentum.

The 2023-24 NBA playoff action continues this week as we move through the second round. One of the games on tap from today's slate features the Denver Nuggets hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge heading into this matchup and why.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Game 5 Info
When	Tues. May 14
Where	Ball Arena
Time	10:30 PM EST
Location	Denver, CO
TV	TNT

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Denver is the favorite heading into Game 5

The Denver Nuggets looked cooked through the first two games against the Minnesota Timberwolves in this conference semifinal matchup. Not only had Minnesota outplayed the defending champions, they did so on Denver's home court. Perhaps a bit premature, but some media outlets were saying the Nuggets were going to get swept.

But as former Houston Rockets coach Rudy Tomjanovich famously said nearly 30 years ago, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." With their backs against the proverbial wall, the Nuggets finally broke through in this series with a 117-90 win in Game 3. If we thought that win was a fluke, the Nuggets leveled the series with a 115-107 win in Game 4 and have seized the momentum for the time being.

Nikola Jokić paced the team's offense with a team-high 35 points (including 16 in the final frame), along with seven rebounds and seven assists. He matched his Game 4 total with three steals.

Michael Porter Jr. had a solid outing, finishing with 27 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and two blocked shots. He also shot 11-for-12 from the floor and knocked down both of his 3-point attempts. Jamal Murray added 19 points, eight assists and five rebounds. Head coach Mike Malone credited the team for drawing on last year's championship run as the catalyst behind their back-to-back victories.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves were confident following their two road wins, and rightfully so. Whether or not they were prepared for it, the Nuggets have awakened from their slumber. Following his 19-point showing in Game 3, Anthony Edwards advised that he would be better in Game 4. He backed up those words, scoring a game-high 44 points on 15-for-26 shooting from the field.

Although the team's young superstar did his part, he had little help in this one. He nearly outscored the other four starters, accounting for 44 of the unit's 94 points. Karl-Anthony Towns—who averaged 20.3 PPG on 62.9 percent shooting through the first three games of the series—produced just 13 points on 5-for-18 shooting from the field. Another factor contributing to the recent loss is that Minnesota did not play with the same defensive intensity we saw in the first two games.

After holding the Nuggets to 89.5 points in Games 1 and 2, they have given up 116 points over the last two games. With that in mind, the result was the team suffering back-to-back losses for the first time in two months.

While Edwards is not stressing about Denver tying up the series, beating this group will be more difficult as the champs have regained their swagger.

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 5 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Picks

GIVEMESPORT presents our picks with analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves' Mike Conley Anthony Edwards

The Spread

Following back-to-back wins in Games 3 and 4, the Nuggets are a 4.5-point favorite coming into this matchup (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight outings.
Minnesota has covered the spread seven times in its last 10 matchups against Denver.
The Timberwolves are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games.
In its last five road games against the Nuggets, Minnesota is 4-1 against the spread.
The Nuggets are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last six May games.
The Nuggets are 25-28-2 ATS when they are favorite to win by 4.5 points or more, while the Timberwolves are 4-4 against the spread when playing as an underdog of at least 4.5 points.
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 207 points, but the line has recently moved to 205.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with “OVER” is the smart choice.

The total has gone OVER nine times in the Timberwolves’ last 13 contests.
The OVER total has prevailed eight times in Minnesota's last 11 games against Western Conference teams.
In the Nuggets' last 20 matchups against Minnesota, the OVER total won 13 times.
Six of Denver's nine postseason contests have exceeded the points total for this matchup.
Meanwhile, five of Minnesota's eight playoff games have gone OVER 205.5 points.
Prediction: OVER 205.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Following his 44-point effort in Game 4, Edwards is the key player to watch for the road team. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

Edwards is averaging 26.5 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
In eight games against the Nuggets this season, Edwards has averaged 29.6 points per contest.
During the postseason, he is averaging 32.1 points per outing.
Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 58 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 26.3 points per outing.
In 19 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Minnesota’s shooting guard averages 27.4 points per game.
Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 28.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.
Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 29.5 points

On the other side of this matchup, the key player to watch for the Nuggets is none other than the three-time MVP, Nikola Jokić. He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Do Jokic’s numbers favorably compare to the estimated points total for this matchup? Let’s look at the tale of the tape to find out.

During the regular season and playoffs, he is averaging 26.5 points per game in 88 appearances.
Jokic has averaged 30.0 points per contest in eight games against the Timberwolves this season (including the playoffs).
During the postseason, he is averaging 27.6 points per outing.
Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 58 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.7 points per outing.
In 18 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Denver's big man averages 28.0 points per game.
Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 26.3 points and 14.1 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.
Prediction: Nikola Jokić OVER 29.5 points