After losing the first two games of their first-round series with the Dallas Mavericks at home, the LA Clippers became the first team to come back from a 2-0 series deficit since the Toronto Raptors did it in the 2019 Eastern Conference finals. Now, can they become the first team in NBA history to come back twice in the same postseason after falling behind 2-0 to the Utah Jazz in the semifinals?
Although the task might seem less daunting because the Clippers are headed home for Games 3 and 4 with a chance to tie up the series on their home court, it's actually a more challenging proposition historically. Since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1983-84, teams that lose the first two games at home have gone 4-19 in best-of-seven series (.174). Teams that lose the first two on the road are 14-200 (.065).
How can the Clippers beat the odds again? Let's take a look at possible factors that could help the Clippers gain the upper hand in the series ahead of Game 3 on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET on ABC).
Pick a rotation
Depth figured to be an advantage for the Clippers in the playoffs. Instead, first-year head coach Tyronn Lue perhaps has too many options, keeping him searching for the right ones. Lue found a tight but workable rotation by the end of the series with Dallas, starting Nicolas Batum in place of a traditional center and using Terance Mann and Luke Kennard as his primary reserves.
Against the Jazz, Lue has reopened his rotation in an unpredictable fashion. In are Patrick Beverley, who played just 11 seconds combined in the final three games of the first round, and DeMarcus Cousins, who didn't play at all. Kennard has continued to play a featured role, while Mann has all but disappeared, playing less than 10 minutes total, and Rajon Rondo went from 28 minutes in Game 1 to a DNP-CD in Game 2.
— Kevin Pelton (@kpelton) June 12, 2021
All told, Lue's rotations have been the third-least consistent among playoff coaches in terms of the standard deviation of his players' minutes from game to game. The two teams ahead of the Clippers, the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets, had to adjust their rotations to deal with injuries to stars Anthony Davis and James Harden. The Clippers haven't had the same kind of jolt, although they did lose backup center Serge Ibaka to a back injury that required season-ending surgery on Thursday.
Mann's seeming demotion is most difficult to understand given the important role he played in two key Clippers wins in the first round. They were plus-18 with him on the court in Game 3 in Dallas, a 10-point win, and plus-14 with Mann in 26 minutes during Game 7. Kennard gives the Clippers more spacing, and Beverley has better defensive matchups in this series than he did against the Mavericks, but I'd still prefer to see Mann in a featured role.
Close the shooting gap
From a statistical standpoint, Utah's two wins in this series have come in different fashions. The Jazz ground out Game 1 despite poor shooting (34% from 3-point range), taking advantage of a rare edge in shot volume thanks to their offensive rebounding and sure-handed ball handling.
The Clippers shored up both of those issues in Game 2. In part because they played centers Cousins and Ivica Zubac more minutes, they limited the Jazz to just two offensive rebounds and forced twice as many turnovers. Utah was able to overcome that Thursday because of the superior shooting that has become a hallmark this season: 20-of-39 (51%) from 3-point range, while the Clippers made just 11 of their 30 attempts (37%).
Surprisingly, the Clippers have generated more catch-and-shoot opportunities in this series than Utah. Through the first two games, the Clippers have attempted 55 catch-and-shoot 3s according to Second Spectrum tracking, as compared to 36 for the Jazz.
The 3-point differential in this series, then, stems from two factors. First, the Clippers -- who finished with the fourth-best 3-point percentage in NBA history -- haven't knocked down catch-and-shoot 3s at their usual rate, making just 34.5% thus far as compared to 42.5% in the regular season, according to Second Spectrum.
Second, Utah was unusually hot on pull-up 3-pointers in Game 2, carrying over a theme from the first round. Per Second Spectrum, teams have made 65 3-pointers against the Clippers that aren't catch-and-shoots, far and away the most of any playoff defense. The Denver Nuggets (54 entering Friday's action) were the only other team that had allowed more than 33. The Jazz made 16 of them in Game 2 alone. According to ESPN Stats & Information analysis of Second Spectrum tracking, that's the most in any game, regular season or playoffs, since camera tracking began in 2013-14.
Consider Kawhi on Mitchell
Lue's ultimate adjustment to contain Doncic in the first round was shifting former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard on him, which happened primarily after the Clippers fell down 3-2 in the series, as noted by Seth Partnow of The Athletic. Now, the Clippers must debate when to make the same move against Mitchell, who has 82 points in 76 minutes so far in this series.
The concern, naturally, is how playing stopper on defense in addition to creating much of the Clippers' offense takes a physical toll on Leonard. Already, he looked low on gas in the first two games of the series, totaling fewer points (44) than he had in Game 6 against the Mavericks (45).
The success the Clippers' zone defense had in the second half of Game 2 helped forestall this question to some extent. The Jazz managed just 12 points on 18 possessions of zone, per Second Spectrum. I'd expect Utah to be better prepared to attack the zone in Game 3, meaning Lue has to be ready to move on to the next plan. Putting Leonard on Mitchell isn't ideal, but given the difficulty of coming back from a 3-0 deficit, there might not be any reason to save Leonard's energy.
Certainly, I'd give the Clippers better chances than the overall 6.4% winning percentage of teams heading home down 2-0. Many of those series were relatively hopeless first-round matchups rather than competitive ones like this, where slightly more ESPN writers picked the Clippers than the Jazz. Given average shot-making by both teams, there's a good chance the Clippers would have won Game 2 and come home tied 1-1 and feeling good about their outlook.
Still, that's not the reality, and the Clippers now have to fear they've already missed their best chance of winning in Salt Lake City with just two more opportunities remaining and the possibility of Mike Conley returning from his hamstring strain at some point in the series. The Clippers can win this series, but it might prove even more challenging than their last comeback.
2021 NBA Playoffs - This 2-0 hole for the LA Clippers is different - ESPN Philippines
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